I view the issue of intellectual modesty much like the issue of anthropics. The only people who matter are those whose decisions are subjunctively linked to yours (it only starts getting complicated when you start asking whether you should be intellectually modest about your reasoning about intellectual modesty)
One issue with the clever arguer is that the persuasiveness of their arguments might have very little to do with how persuasive they should be, so attempting to work off expectations might fail.
I view the issue of intellectual modesty much like the issue of anthropics. The only people who matter are those whose decisions are subjunctively linked to yours (it only starts getting complicated when you start asking whether you should be intellectually modest about your reasoning about intellectual modesty)
I agree fairly strongly, but this seems far from the final word on the subject, to me.
One issue with the clever arguer is that the persuasiveness of their arguments might have very little to do with how persuasive they should be, so attempting to work off expectations might fail.
Ah. I take you to be saying that the quality of the clever arguer’s argument can be high variance, since there is a good deal of chance in the quality of evidence cherry-picking is able to find. A good point. But, is it ‘too high’? Do we want to do something (beyond the strategy I sketched in the post) to reduce variance?
I agree fairly strongly, but this seems far from the final word on the subject, to me.
Hmm, actually I think you’re right and that it may be more complex than this.
Ah. I take you to be saying that the quality of the clever arguer’s argument can be high variance, since there is a good deal of chance in the quality of evidence cherry-picking is able to find. A good point.
Exactly. There may only be a weak correlation between evidence and truth. And maybe you can do something with it or maybe it’s better to focus on stronger signals instead.
I view the issue of intellectual modesty much like the issue of anthropics. The only people who matter are those whose decisions are subjunctively linked to yours (it only starts getting complicated when you start asking whether you should be intellectually modest about your reasoning about intellectual modesty)
One issue with the clever arguer is that the persuasiveness of their arguments might have very little to do with how persuasive they should be, so attempting to work off expectations might fail.
I agree fairly strongly, but this seems far from the final word on the subject, to me.
Ah. I take you to be saying that the quality of the clever arguer’s argument can be high variance, since there is a good deal of chance in the quality of evidence cherry-picking is able to find. A good point. But, is it ‘too high’? Do we want to do something (beyond the strategy I sketched in the post) to reduce variance?
Hmm, actually I think you’re right and that it may be more complex than this.
Exactly. There may only be a weak correlation between evidence and truth. And maybe you can do something with it or maybe it’s better to focus on stronger signals instead.