I’m currently feeling very uncertain about the relative costs and benefits of centralization in general. I used to be more into the idea of a national project that centralized domestic projects and thus reduced domestic racing dynamics (and arguably better aligned incentives), but now I’m nervous about the secrecy that would likely entail, and think it’s less clear that a non-centralized situation inevitably leads to a decisive strategic advantage for the leading project. Which is to say, even under pretty optimistic assumptions about how much such a project invests in alignment, security, and benefit-sharing, I’m pretty uncertain that this would be good, and with more realistic assumptions I probably lean towards it being bad. But it super depends on the governance, the wider context, how a “Manhattan Project” would affect domestic companies and China’s policymaking, etc.
(I think a great start would be not naming it after the Manhattan Project, though. It seems path dependent, and that’s not a great first step.)
Depends on the direction/magnitude of the shift!
I’m currently feeling very uncertain about the relative costs and benefits of centralization in general. I used to be more into the idea of a national project that centralized domestic projects and thus reduced domestic racing dynamics (and arguably better aligned incentives), but now I’m nervous about the secrecy that would likely entail, and think it’s less clear that a non-centralized situation inevitably leads to a decisive strategic advantage for the leading project. Which is to say, even under pretty optimistic assumptions about how much such a project invests in alignment, security, and benefit-sharing, I’m pretty uncertain that this would be good, and with more realistic assumptions I probably lean towards it being bad. But it super depends on the governance, the wider context, how a “Manhattan Project” would affect domestic companies and China’s policymaking, etc.
(I think a great start would be not naming it after the Manhattan Project, though. It seems path dependent, and that’s not a great first step.)
Can you say more about what has contributed to this update?