You didn’t succeed in communicating your problem, otherwise someone else would have explained earlier. I had been reading your posts on the issue and didn’t have even the tiniest hint of an idea that the piece you were missing was an explanation of bayesian reasoning until just before writing that comment, and even then was less optimistic about the comment doing anything for you than I had been for earlier comments. I’m still puzzled and unsure whether it actually was Bayesian reasoning or something else in the comment that apparently helped you. if it was you should read http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes and some of the post here tagged “bayesian”.
You didn’t succeed in communicating your problem, otherwise someone else would have explained earlier. I had been reading your posts on the issue and didn’t have even the tiniest hint of an idea that the piece you were missing was an explanation of bayesian reasoning until just before writing that comment, and even then was less optimistic about the comment doing anything for you than I had been for earlier comments. I’m still puzzled and unsure whether it actually was Bayesian reasoning or something else in the comment that apparently helped you. if it was you should read http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes and some of the post here tagged “bayesian”.