I am very sceptical about that being true for those alive now:
We have been looking for things that might hit us for a long while now—and we can see much more clearly what the chances are for that period than by looking at the historical record. Also, that is apparently assuming no mitigation attempts—which also seems totally unrealistic.
...gives 700 deaths/year for aircraft—and 1,400 deaths/year for 2km impacts—based on assumption that one quarter of the human population would perish in such an impact.
That claims that “that the lifetime risk of dying from an asteroid strike is about the same as the risk of dying in a commercial airplane crash”.
It cites:
Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v367/n6458/abs/367033a0.html
I am very sceptical about that being true for those alive now:
We have been looking for things that might hit us for a long while now—and we can see much more clearly what the chances are for that period than by looking at the historical record. Also, that is apparently assuming no mitigation attempts—which also seems totally unrealistic.
Looking further:
http://users.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html
...gives 700 deaths/year for aircraft—and 1,400 deaths/year for 2km impacts—based on assumption that one quarter of the human population would perish in such an impact.
Yet, does the SIAI provide evidence on par with the paper I linked to?
What—about the chances of superintelligence causing THE END OF THE WORLD?!?
Of course not! How could they be expected to do that?