Thanks. It still seems to me like the problem recurs. The application of Occam’s razor to questions like “will the Sun rise tomorrow?” seems more solid than e.g. random intuitions I have about how to weigh up various considerations. But the latter do still seem like a very weak version of the former. (E.g. both do rely on my intuitions; and in both cases, the domain have something in common with cases where my intuitions have worked well before, and something not-in-common.) And so it’s unclear to me what non-arbitrary standards I can use to decide whether I should let both, neither, or just the latter be “outweighed by a principle of suspending judgment”.
(General caveat that I’m not sure if I’m missing your point.)
Sure, there’s still a “problem” in the sense that we don’t have a clean epistemic theory of everything. The weights we put on the importance of different principles, and how well different credences fulfill them, will be fuzzy. But we’ve had this problem all along.
There are options other than (1) purely determinate credences or (2) implausibly wide indeterminate credences. To me, there are very compelling intuitions behind the view that the balance among my epistemic principles is best struck by (3) indeterminate credences that are narrow in proportion to the weight of evidence and how far principles like Occam seem to go. This isn’t objective (neither are any other principles of rationality less trivial than avoiding synchronic sure losses). Maybe your intuitions differ, upon careful reflection. That doesn’t mean it’s a free-for-all. Even if it is, this isn’t a positive argument for determinacy.
both do rely on my intuitions
My intuitions about foundational epistemic principles are just about what I philosophically endorse — in that domain, I don’t know what else we could possibly go on other than intuition. Whereas, my intuitions about empirical claims about the far future only seem worth endorsing as far as I have reasons to think they’re tracking empirical reality.
Thanks. It still seems to me like the problem recurs. The application of Occam’s razor to questions like “will the Sun rise tomorrow?” seems more solid than e.g. random intuitions I have about how to weigh up various considerations. But the latter do still seem like a very weak version of the former. (E.g. both do rely on my intuitions; and in both cases, the domain have something in common with cases where my intuitions have worked well before, and something not-in-common.) And so it’s unclear to me what non-arbitrary standards I can use to decide whether I should let both, neither, or just the latter be “outweighed by a principle of suspending judgment”.
(General caveat that I’m not sure if I’m missing your point.)
Sure, there’s still a “problem” in the sense that we don’t have a clean epistemic theory of everything. The weights we put on the importance of different principles, and how well different credences fulfill them, will be fuzzy. But we’ve had this problem all along.
There are options other than (1) purely determinate credences or (2) implausibly wide indeterminate credences. To me, there are very compelling intuitions behind the view that the balance among my epistemic principles is best struck by (3) indeterminate credences that are narrow in proportion to the weight of evidence and how far principles like Occam seem to go. This isn’t objective (neither are any other principles of rationality less trivial than avoiding synchronic sure losses). Maybe your intuitions differ, upon careful reflection. That doesn’t mean it’s a free-for-all. Even if it is, this isn’t a positive argument for determinacy.
My intuitions about foundational epistemic principles are just about what I philosophically endorse — in that domain, I don’t know what else we could possibly go on other than intuition. Whereas, my intuitions about empirical claims about the far future only seem worth endorsing as far as I have reasons to think they’re tracking empirical reality.