Also, my sense is that many people are making decisions based on similar intuitions as the ones you have (albeit with much less of a formal argument for how this can be represented or why it’s reasonable). In particular, my impression is that people who are are uncompelled by longtermism (despite being compelled by some type of scope-sensitive consequentialism) are often driven by an aversion to very non-robust EV-estimates.
Also, my sense is that many people are making decisions based on similar intuitions as the ones you have (albeit with much less of a formal argument for how this can be represented or why it’s reasonable). In particular, my impression is that people who are are uncompelled by longtermism (despite being compelled by some type of scope-sensitive consequentialism) are often driven by an aversion to very non-robust EV-estimates.