When I made the (predictable, wrong) choice, I wasn’t using probability at all. I was using intuitive rules of thumb like: “don’t gamble”, “treat small differences in probability as unimportant”, and “if you have to gamble against similar odds, go for the larger win”.
How do you find time to use authentic probability math for all your chance-taking decisions?
“Don’t gamble” is the key. 1a allowed me to indulge that even if i was boxed into being in the game.
So in question 2 I want to follow “don’t gamble” but both are gambling. Additionally, both gambles would feel the same risk to most human who didn’t record statistics (other than subconscious and normal memory effected observations) so could be cheaply rounded off to say they are the same. If they are “the same” but 1 pays more money...
Oh one more point “easy come easy go”. If you can lose 2 either way you won’t feel like you ever had anything. However even before you pick 1a and they physically hand you the money, it’s already yours (by virtue of the ability to choose 1a ) until you choose 1b and introduce the probability that you won’t be paid. I say already yours because if you are guaranteed the choice of 1a forever and unconditionally unless until you choose 1b- that’s no less “having money” than when you “have money” but it’s in your pocket or in your wallet in the other room. It might not be your money anymore if you fling your wallet out the window hoping it will boomerang back (1b) but it was until you introduced that gamble rather than just choosing to clutch the wallet (1a).
I feel like i must be missing the point or something because they seems so obviously right...
When I made the (predictable, wrong) choice, I wasn’t using probability at all. I was using intuitive rules of thumb like: “don’t gamble”, “treat small differences in probability as unimportant”, and “if you have to gamble against similar odds, go for the larger win”.
How do you find time to use authentic probability math for all your chance-taking decisions?
That’s exactly how i felt too.
“Don’t gamble” is the key. 1a allowed me to indulge that even if i was boxed into being in the game.
So in question 2 I want to follow “don’t gamble” but both are gambling. Additionally, both gambles would feel the same risk to most human who didn’t record statistics (other than subconscious and normal memory effected observations) so could be cheaply rounded off to say they are the same. If they are “the same” but 1 pays more money...
Oh one more point “easy come easy go”. If you can lose 2 either way you won’t feel like you ever had anything. However even before you pick 1a and they physically hand you the money, it’s already yours (by virtue of the ability to choose 1a ) until you choose 1b and introduce the probability that you won’t be paid. I say already yours because if you are guaranteed the choice of 1a forever and unconditionally unless until you choose 1b- that’s no less “having money” than when you “have money” but it’s in your pocket or in your wallet in the other room. It might not be your money anymore if you fling your wallet out the window hoping it will boomerang back (1b) but it was until you introduced that gamble rather than just choosing to clutch the wallet (1a).
I feel like i must be missing the point or something because they seems so obviously right...