Ummm, no. The money pump fails because of the REASON for the preference difference.
The reason is, as some have already stated, that in scenario 1B if you lose you know it’s your fault you got nothing.
In scenario 2B if you lose, you can rationalise it easily as “Would have lost anyway”
In your money pump scenario, we have a 1/3rd chance of playing 1. If we get to play 1, we know we’re playing 1. So your money pump fails, because a standard player would prefer that the switch be on A at all times.
Ummm, no. The money pump fails because of the REASON for the preference difference.
The reason is, as some have already stated, that in scenario 1B if you lose you know it’s your fault you got nothing. In scenario 2B if you lose, you can rationalise it easily as “Would have lost anyway”
In your money pump scenario, we have a 1/3rd chance of playing 1. If we get to play 1, we know we’re playing 1. So your money pump fails, because a standard player would prefer that the switch be on A at all times.