Er, have you tried this? People refuse to bet. The idea that there should be a bet you’re prepared to accept on a subject is also a part of the culture here that the people I’m talking about don’t share.
Emphasis on the “make”. Most people should be able to understand—at least as a though experiment—that there are circumstances under which they would have to bet—for example if failure to place a bet was punishable by their own life being forfeit. So, you can normally say: “if you were forced to bet...”.
I’m not saying this will work on everyone—but usually framing things in terms of bets makes them more concrete, and helps people to understand what you are asking.
You just make them bet. That reveals that they do have probability estimates.
Er, have you tried this? People refuse to bet. The idea that there should be a bet you’re prepared to accept on a subject is also a part of the culture here that the people I’m talking about don’t share.
Emphasis on the “make”. Most people should be able to understand—at least as a though experiment—that there are circumstances under which they would have to bet—for example if failure to place a bet was punishable by their own life being forfeit. So, you can normally say: “if you were forced to bet...”.
I’m not saying this will work on everyone—but usually framing things in terms of bets makes them more concrete, and helps people to understand what you are asking.
Even asking to bet on 2+2=4 doesn’t always work!