I don’t think they really mean maximum entropy, though. There seems to be “I don’t know, it’s 50/50” and then “I don’t know, but it’s obviously skewed this way, and I have strong confidence that there are unknown-unknowns that will skew it further when they’re discovered”
I don’t think they really mean maximum entropy, though. There seems to be “I don’t know, it’s 50/50” and then “I don’t know, but it’s obviously skewed this way, and I have strong confidence that there are unknown-unknowns that will skew it further when they’re discovered”
In that case, you should be able to use how strongly you anticipate the skewing to create a probability estimate.
I am not aware of any mathematical conversion between “I’m pretty sure you’re wrong” and a specific probability estimate.