The only answer I can think of here is to take a prior over all possible sequence generating computer programs, weighting them for length, and then to jack up the ones that simulate 2d6 or 1d12, and then to use the numbers to update on that.
I don’t know if I’ve just described Solomonoff Induction or similar, but it sounds complicated, and yet I notice that if I’d just seen 10000 consecutive 4s I’d be pretty hot for the ‘always gives 4’ theory, and I wonder how I’d be doing that with my limited supply of slow neurons.
The only answer I can think of here is to take a prior over all possible sequence generating computer programs, weighting them for length, and then to jack up the ones that simulate 2d6 or 1d12, and then to use the numbers to update on that.
I don’t know if I’ve just described Solomonoff Induction or similar, but it sounds complicated, and yet I notice that if I’d just seen 10000 consecutive 4s I’d be pretty hot for the ‘always gives 4’ theory, and I wonder how I’d be doing that with my limited supply of slow neurons.