The model for capabilities progress is described here https://ai-2040.com/supplements/takeoff-supplement .
It seems like the base rate of crazy discontinuous architectural improvements that work at much-lower-than-frontier-levels-of-compute is low. I feel like I’d be more worried about them if there was an argument for why the underlying inputs to that discovery process would be much higher in Plan A, otherwise “people have been able to think about brain-like architectures for quite a while, but haven’t succeeded yet” seems like evidence that it’s quite hard. Maybe advances in actual neuroscience would make it easier?
The model for capabilities progress is described here https://ai-2040.com/supplements/takeoff-supplement . It seems like the base rate of crazy discontinuous architectural improvements that work at much-lower-than-frontier-levels-of-compute is low. I feel like I’d be more worried about them if there was an argument for why the underlying inputs to that discovery process would be much higher in Plan A, otherwise “people have been able to think about brain-like architectures for quite a while, but haven’t succeeded yet” seems like evidence that it’s quite hard. Maybe advances in actual neuroscience would make it easier?