the much more common case is something like the Congo or Nigeria [...] so the base rates are pretty bad.
These are not valid counterexamples because my argument was very specifically about rich countries that are already democracies. As far as I know 100% (1/1) of already rich democracies that then get rich from natural resources don’t become more autocratic. The base rate is great! (Though obviously it’s n=1 from a country that has an oil rent that is much less than 95% of its GDP.)
These are not valid counterexamples because my argument was very specifically about rich countries that are already democracies. As far as I know 100% (1/1) of already rich democracies that then get rich from natural resources don’t become more autocratic. The base rate is great! (Though obviously it’s n=1 from a country that has an oil rent that is much less than 95% of its GDP.)
Reference class tennis, yay!