All of 1-4 seem plausible to me, and I don’t centrally expect that power concentration will lead to everyone dying.
Even if all of 1-4 hold, I think the future will probably be a lot less good than it could have been: - 4 is more likely to mean that earth becomes a nature reserve for humans or something, than that the stars are equitably allocated
- I’m worried that there are bad selection effects such that 3 already screens out some kinds of altruists (e.g. ones who aren’t willing to strategy steal). Some good stuff might still happen to existing humans, but the future will miss out on some values completely
- I’m worried about power corrupting/there being no checks and balances/there being no incentives to keep doing good stuff for others
All of 1-4 seem plausible to me, and I don’t centrally expect that power concentration will lead to everyone dying.
Even if all of 1-4 hold, I think the future will probably be a lot less good than it could have been:
- 4 is more likely to mean that earth becomes a nature reserve for humans or something, than that the stars are equitably allocated
- I’m worried that there are bad selection effects such that 3 already screens out some kinds of altruists (e.g. ones who aren’t willing to strategy steal). Some good stuff might still happen to existing humans, but the future will miss out on some values completely
- I’m worried about power corrupting/there being no checks and balances/there being no incentives to keep doing good stuff for others