“Of course he would argue for X, therefore you shouldn’t listen to his arguments for X” is a fully general counterargument. The fact that he is making arguments for X shouldn’t cause much updating; the content of those arguments may very well. I realize that’s not precisely the point you are making.
If the arguments are already known to us, then they shouldn’t cause any updating if we are perfect logicians. However, it should be noted that this wasn’t a general post on the likelihood of the singularity, but a response to the other article (the bird metaphor was theirs, not Hanson’s). He was pointing out how already known arguments de-fang the arguments presented: if Hanson’s objections are correct, then if you were doing much updating because of the new arguments presented by Paul Allen, you should undo most of it.
Edited to add:
I should note that this is only applicable when the existing argument undermines the other argument, not when it simply overwhelms the new argument, or you get back to double-counting problems.
if Hanson’s objections are correct, then if you were doing much updating because of the new arguments presented by Paul Allen, you should undo most of it.
“Of course he would argue for X, therefore you shouldn’t listen to his arguments for X” is a fully general counterargument. The fact that he is making arguments for X shouldn’t cause much updating; the content of those arguments may very well. I realize that’s not precisely the point you are making.
If the arguments are already known to us, then they shouldn’t cause any updating if we are perfect logicians. However, it should be noted that this wasn’t a general post on the likelihood of the singularity, but a response to the other article (the bird metaphor was theirs, not Hanson’s). He was pointing out how already known arguments de-fang the arguments presented: if Hanson’s objections are correct, then if you were doing much updating because of the new arguments presented by Paul Allen, you should undo most of it.
Edited to add:
I should note that this is only applicable when the existing argument undermines the other argument, not when it simply overwhelms the new argument, or you get back to double-counting problems.
Aha, that makes sense.