I think this is a really valuable thing to think about and I enjoyed reading the post. One point that’s implicit in the entire thing is that you fundamentally assume capabilities progress doesn’t need as much “taste” or “creativity”. I think this is entirely possible but important to note it’s not necessarily the case.
I notice how all the capabilities research points on the predicted order of speed up scale are are all focused on things relevant to the current LLM paradigm, but don’t encompass things related to e.g. what happened with the transformer paper and then the scaling up experiments at OpenAI that unlocked an entirely new regime of capabilities
Thanks Joe! Indeed I ranked most safety areas (only exception is DCE) lower on the insight vs engineering factor. I’m also not confident in this and I agree this factor changes if other paradigms become more relevant.
Also you’re right that I was mostly thinking about the current LLM paradigm. I think my forecast becomes significantly less relevant if the path to AGI is via other paradigms.
I think this is a really valuable thing to think about and I enjoyed reading the post. One point that’s implicit in the entire thing is that you fundamentally assume capabilities progress doesn’t need as much “taste” or “creativity”. I think this is entirely possible but important to note it’s not necessarily the case.
I notice how all the capabilities research points on the predicted order of speed up scale are are all focused on things relevant to the current LLM paradigm, but don’t encompass things related to e.g. what happened with the transformer paper and then the scaling up experiments at OpenAI that unlocked an entirely new regime of capabilities
Thanks Joe! Indeed I ranked most safety areas (only exception is DCE) lower on the insight vs engineering factor. I’m also not confident in this and I agree this factor changes if other paradigms become more relevant.
Also you’re right that I was mostly thinking about the current LLM paradigm. I think my forecast becomes significantly less relevant if the path to AGI is via other paradigms.