A two year FOOM doesn’t have to be obvious for one year or even half a year. If the growth rate is up-curving, it’s going to spend most of its ascent looking a bit ELIZA, and then it’s briefly a cute news-darling C3PO, and then it goes all ghost-in-the shell—game over. Even if there is a window of revealed vulnerability, will you without hindsight recognize it? Can you gather the force and political will in time? How would you block the inevitable morally outraged (or furtively amoral) attempts to rebuild?
A two year FOOM doesn’t have to be obvious for one year or even half a year. If the growth rate is up-curving, it’s going to spend most of its ascent looking a bit ELIZA, and then it’s briefly a cute news-darling C3PO, and then it goes all ghost-in-the shell—game over. Even if there is a window of revealed vulnerability, will you without hindsight recognize it? Can you gather the force and political will in time? How would you block the inevitable morally outraged (or furtively amoral) attempts to rebuild?
Bruce Willis is not the answer.