At this point my middle 50% CI is like 2027 − 2035, and would be tighter if not for a long tail that I keep around just because I think it’s have a bunch of uncertainty. Though I do wish I had more arguments in place to justify the tail or make it bigger, ones that compete in how compelling they feel to me to the ones above.
A brief history of things that have defined my timelines to AGI since learning about AI safety <2 years ago
Bio anchors gave me a rough ceiling around 1e40 FLOP for how much compute will easily make AGI.
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute brought that same ‘training-compute-FLOP needed for AGI’ down a bunch to around 1e35 FLOP.
Researching how much compute is scaling in the near future.
At this point I think it was pretty concentrated across ~1e27 − 1e33 flop so very long tail and something like a 2030-2040 50% CI.
The benchmarks+gaps argument to partial AI research automation.
The takeoff forecast for how partial AI research automation will translate to algorithmic progress.
The trend in METR’s time horizon data.
At this point my middle 50% CI is like 2027 − 2035, and would be tighter if not for a long tail that I keep around just because I think it’s have a bunch of uncertainty. Though I do wish I had more arguments in place to justify the tail or make it bigger, ones that compete in how compelling they feel to me to the ones above.