A brief history of the things that have most collapsed my timelines down since becoming aware of AI safety <2 years ago:
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute IMO, a pretty compelling writeup that brought my ‘timelines to AGI uncertainty-over-training-compute-FLOP’ down a bunch
Generally working on AI 2027, which has included
Writing and reading the capabilities progression where each step seems plausible.
Researching how much compute is scaling.
Thinking about how naive and limiting current algorithms and architectures seem, and what changes they are plausibly going to be able to implement soon.
The detailed benchmarks+gaps argument in the timelines forecast.
A brief history of the things that have most collapsed my timelines down since becoming aware of AI safety <2 years ago:
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute IMO, a pretty compelling writeup that brought my ‘timelines to AGI uncertainty-over-training-compute-FLOP’ down a bunch
Generally working on AI 2027, which has included
Writing and reading the capabilities progression where each step seems plausible.
Researching how much compute is scaling.
Thinking about how naive and limiting current algorithms and architectures seem, and what changes they are plausibly going to be able to implement soon.
The detailed benchmarks+gaps argument in the timelines forecast.
The recent trend in METR’s time horizon data.