Eliezer’s beliefs IIRC have us at <5% of survival (could be wrong here, just going off memory). I have a lot of uncertainty over both timelines and doom myself, but my guesses are in the range of 30-60% (and these are just the centre two quartiles) chance of something catastrophic in the next 10 years. Beyond that it becomes even more uncertain to me because I am optimistic about a lot of alignment work bar the time constraint.
For what it’s worth, Eliezer’s beliefs tend to be on the more extreme end of pessimistic among alignment researchers. On the other end you have people like Paul.
Eliezer’s beliefs IIRC have us at <5% of survival (could be wrong here, just going off memory). I have a lot of uncertainty over both timelines and doom myself, but my guesses are in the range of 30-60% (and these are just the centre two quartiles) chance of something catastrophic in the next 10 years. Beyond that it becomes even more uncertain to me because I am optimistic about a lot of alignment work bar the time constraint.
For what it’s worth, Eliezer’s beliefs tend to be on the more extreme end of pessimistic among alignment researchers. On the other end you have people like Paul.