Thanks for sharing this and for the examples layed out. I was not familiar with all of them, though many. but I did omit stating that I meant outside of fiction. My assumption is still relatively short timeframes of 5 to 15 years. Under those assumptions I dont necessarily see scenario 1 or 7 being more likely than scenario 8.
Quick note. I see a show like Upload being a potential representation of a facet of these scenarios. For example scenarios 2 to 7 could all have widespread virtual realities for the common person or those who opt out willingly or otherwise from base biological reality.
A part of my underlying assumption is that there are organizations, be it government, private or otherwise that are likely far mor advanced in their brain computer interface tech (BCI), than they would disclose publicly. There is also net negative value at some point in advancing AGI and BCI publicly versus privately. The first to get there, wins far more power using it in secret. The fiat money system is so far beyond repair and traceability that this is perfectly plausible to execute.
As to plausability and assumptions, my proposed approach is.. work within 5 to 15 year time frame, where we have advanced AGI but not ASI in the first 5. Then it is feasible for example to argue that it has integrated itself across critical system, compromised legacy equipment and code, led to rapid advancement in lab wet work and understanding of conciousness, resulted in development of new materials, had us build it a factory for manufacturing, is held by a select group who exploit it, etc.
I almost want to draft up a spreadsheet if anybody would be interested to collab.. track possible scenarios, possible variables, and probabilities based on present realities and possible near term wowza factors.
Thanks for sharing this and for the examples layed out. I was not familiar with all of them, though many. but I did omit stating that I meant outside of fiction. My assumption is still relatively short timeframes of 5 to 15 years. Under those assumptions I dont necessarily see scenario 1 or 7 being more likely than scenario 8.
Quick note. I see a show like Upload being a potential representation of a facet of these scenarios. For example scenarios 2 to 7 could all have widespread virtual realities for the common person or those who opt out willingly or otherwise from base biological reality.
A part of my underlying assumption is that there are organizations, be it government, private or otherwise that are likely far mor advanced in their brain computer interface tech (BCI), than they would disclose publicly. There is also net negative value at some point in advancing AGI and BCI publicly versus privately. The first to get there, wins far more power using it in secret. The fiat money system is so far beyond repair and traceability that this is perfectly plausible to execute.
As to plausability and assumptions, my proposed approach is.. work within 5 to 15 year time frame, where we have advanced AGI but not ASI in the first 5. Then it is feasible for example to argue that it has integrated itself across critical system, compromised legacy equipment and code, led to rapid advancement in lab wet work and understanding of conciousness, resulted in development of new materials, had us build it a factory for manufacturing, is held by a select group who exploit it, etc.
I almost want to draft up a spreadsheet if anybody would be interested to collab.. track possible scenarios, possible variables, and probabilities based on present realities and possible near term wowza factors.