Maximization of neglectedness gives different results from those of maximization of impact.
I don’t disagree, but my point is that you can’t directly maximize impact without already knowing a lot. Other people will usually do the work that’s very straightforward to do, so the highest counterfactually valuable work requires specialized knowledge or insights.
Obviously there are many paths that are low-impact. Since it’s hard to know which are valuable before you learn about them, you should make a theory-of-change hypothesis and start testing that best guess. That way you’re more likely to get information that causes you to make a better plan if you’re on a bad track.