I mean, this argument holds generally for any kind of investment in future events. Supposing that some kind of TAI gets produced in the year y, investments made in the year y-10 are probably less likely to be accurate than investments made in year y-9, and so on for y-8… All the way to y-0 when we know for sure which group of actors will make TAI (which, of course, happens when they succeed). Unfortunately, the commensurate difficulty of using funding to make an impact also increases as we approach y-0.
So I agree with you that such considerations cannot provide too much sway, because on their own they justify indefinite inaction until it is definitely too late.
I mean, this argument holds generally for any kind of investment in future events. Supposing that some kind of TAI gets produced in the year y, investments made in the year y-10 are probably less likely to be accurate than investments made in year y-9, and so on for y-8… All the way to y-0 when we know for sure which group of actors will make TAI (which, of course, happens when they succeed). Unfortunately, the commensurate difficulty of using funding to make an impact also increases as we approach y-0.
So I agree with you that such considerations cannot provide too much sway, because on their own they justify indefinite inaction until it is definitely too late.