I think this is a good point. At the same time, I suspect the main reason we’re likely to be wiser a year from now is that we’ll have done stuff over the coming year that we’ll learn from. And the more we spend over the next year, the more we’ll be able to do, leading to more learning. In some ways this feels like “yes, maybe from an individual level it’ll feel better to wait and learn more, but your spending now not only lets you learn better but also lets others learn better.” I think the factor I’m pointing to is actually substantial, in particular if you’re funding highly promising areas that are relatively new and that others are skeptical of or feel insufficiently knowledgeable about.
I think this is a good point. At the same time, I suspect the main reason we’re likely to be wiser a year from now is that we’ll have done stuff over the coming year that we’ll learn from. And the more we spend over the next year, the more we’ll be able to do, leading to more learning. In some ways this feels like “yes, maybe from an individual level it’ll feel better to wait and learn more, but your spending now not only lets you learn better but also lets others learn better.” I think the factor I’m pointing to is actually substantial, in particular if you’re funding highly promising areas that are relatively new and that others are skeptical of or feel insufficiently knowledgeable about.