Well a simple, useful, accurate, non-learning-oriented model, except to the extent that it’s a known temporary state, is to turn all the red boxes into one more node in your mental map and average out accordingly. If they’re an expert it’s like “well what I’ve THOUGHT to this point is 0.3, but someone very important said 0.6, so it’s probably closer to 0.6, but it’s also possible we’re talking about different situations without realizing it.”
Well a simple, useful, accurate, non-learning-oriented model, except to the extent that it’s a known temporary state, is to turn all the red boxes into one more node in your mental map and average out accordingly. If they’re an expert it’s like “well what I’ve THOUGHT to this point is 0.3, but someone very important said 0.6, so it’s probably closer to 0.6, but it’s also possible we’re talking about different situations without realizing it.”