Further observations having graphed all encounter damage as a histogram:
Dragon: Somtimes does zero, often does a lot of damage, long tail
Harpies: Usually do zero, occasionally do one of a few values up to about 0.2
Iceberg: One of ten-ish values spaced sporadically between 0 and 0.3
Kraken: Exponential-ish distribution with tail going up to 0.9 ish
Merfolk: Usually does zero, flat-ish distribution which goes up to 0.65
Sharks: Often do zero, otherwise one of a few values up to like 0.15, not a big threat
Storm: Exponential-ish with faster dropoff than kraken
WMF: Might be half a gaussian? Also randomy hits high
I suspect due to the frequency of zeros, some captains/ships are immune to certain threats. Will investigate further
Another observation is that lots of the most dangerous squares have no encounters listed. This is spooky and I have a couple of hypotheses:
1: There’s an unobserved fatal threat thing going on. For example those are “dragon nests” and if you go there the dragons have some chance to just destroy you. Doesn’t seem to be a correlation to other things though so I’m not confident.
2: Some weird selection effects where the useless ships/captains always go via those squares (always include selection effects)
Further observations having graphed all encounter damage as a histogram:
Dragon: Somtimes does zero, often does a lot of damage, long tail
Harpies: Usually do zero, occasionally do one of a few values up to about 0.2
Iceberg: One of ten-ish values spaced sporadically between 0 and 0.3
Kraken: Exponential-ish distribution with tail going up to 0.9 ish
Merfolk: Usually does zero, flat-ish distribution which goes up to 0.65
Sharks: Often do zero, otherwise one of a few values up to like 0.15, not a big threat
Storm: Exponential-ish with faster dropoff than kraken
WMF: Might be half a gaussian? Also randomy hits high
I suspect due to the frequency of zeros, some captains/ships are immune to certain threats. Will investigate further
Another observation is that lots of the most dangerous squares have no encounters listed. This is spooky and I have a couple of hypotheses:
1: There’s an unobserved fatal threat thing going on. For example those are “dragon nests” and if you go there the dragons have some chance to just destroy you. Doesn’t seem to be a correlation to other things though so I’m not confident.
2: Some weird selection effects where the useless ships/captains always go via those squares (always include selection effects)