Even they likely think that the counterfactual impact of any (ex ante reasonable) decision in their power could contribute only a minor fraction of that number. Of course, a case could be made that this is pernicious motivated reasoning, I’m only saying that it’s consistent with my model of human thinking and behavior.
The part that doesn’t go through is when the people are people discussed the OP, who do thing there’s some huge (>10%) chance of extinction from AGI.
Even they likely think that the counterfactual impact of any (ex ante reasonable) decision in their power could contribute only a minor fraction of that number. Of course, a case could be made that this is pernicious motivated reasoning, I’m only saying that it’s consistent with my model of human thinking and behavior.