You don’t actually get to do that. Bayes Rule does not allow one to not update on evidence. Tons of things that happened between 2009 and today should have changed Legg’s estimates, in various directions, including the Transformer paper, and also including ‘nothing important happened today.’
Not necessary. If we’re doing batched updates (and noone updates on every single minute detail) and if the events happening in real world align with the timeline “50% of AGI by 2028” then you just update 50% → 50% every time. Which is pretty much my interpretation what Shane Legg meant in the first place—“what I see happening in the world is exactly what would’ve happened in the world that has 50% chance of getting AGI by 2028″.
Not necessary. If we’re doing batched updates (and noone updates on every single minute detail) and if the events happening in real world align with the timeline “50% of AGI by 2028” then you just update 50% → 50% every time. Which is pretty much my interpretation what Shane Legg meant in the first place—“what I see happening in the world is exactly what would’ve happened in the world that has 50% chance of getting AGI by 2028″.