I was under the impression you expected slower catch-up progress.
Note that I think the target we’re making quantitative forecasts about will tend to overestimate that-which-I-consider-to-be “catch-up algorithmic progress” so I do expect slower catch-up progress than the naive inference from my forecast (ofc maybe you already factored that in).
Note that I think the target we’re making quantitative forecasts about will tend to overestimate that-which-I-consider-to-be “catch-up algorithmic progress” so I do expect slower catch-up progress than the naive inference from my forecast (ofc maybe you already factored that in).