I love Fatebook as a user, and also this feels like an odd fit for the Best Of LessWrong collection.
I usually think of the Best Of LessWrong collection as being the best posts from a given year. The collection used to be physical books, printed on paper, which I could physically hand to someone. By that standard, this isn’t very good. What exactly would someone do with this post if they read it in a book? It’s kind of just a (well written) advertisement. The magic happens if they go to the website.
But man, the last few years have been a giant leap forward in prediction tools, haven’t they? Polymarket and Kalshi showing up in news broadcasts and respectable journalism, Manifold Markets having honest to goodness conferences, and here, quietly announced in a LessWrong post, is a tool that’s starting to feel as much a reflex and habit to me as Google Search and my pomodoro timer. It’s exactly what it says on the tin, a clean, fast, simple prediction tool, and the thought of going back to the google form I used to use makes me sad.
Take your +4 vote. It’s a very well written advertisement for a product more people should use. If the LW team does print more Best Of LessWrong books, may I suggest having one page that literally just says “THESE PEOPLE USE FATEBOOK AND YOU SHOULD TOO” with a bunch of signatures underneath? (Half joking- but only half.)
I love Fatebook as a user, and also this feels like an odd fit for the Best Of LessWrong collection.
I usually think of the Best Of LessWrong collection as being the best posts from a given year. The collection used to be physical books, printed on paper, which I could physically hand to someone. By that standard, this isn’t very good. What exactly would someone do with this post if they read it in a book? It’s kind of just a (well written) advertisement. The magic happens if they go to the website.
But man, the last few years have been a giant leap forward in prediction tools, haven’t they? Polymarket and Kalshi showing up in news broadcasts and respectable journalism, Manifold Markets having honest to goodness conferences, and here, quietly announced in a LessWrong post, is a tool that’s starting to feel as much a reflex and habit to me as Google Search and my pomodoro timer. It’s exactly what it says on the tin, a clean, fast, simple prediction tool, and the thought of going back to the google form I used to use makes me sad.
Take your +4 vote. It’s a very well written advertisement for a product more people should use. If the LW team does print more Best Of LessWrong books, may I suggest having one page that literally just says “THESE PEOPLE USE FATEBOOK AND YOU SHOULD TOO” with a bunch of signatures underneath? (Half joking- but only half.)