That doesn’t help because there’s no baseline. How many times did he have public positions that didn’t pan out?
But the point is that “Eliezer knew better than the experts with respect to lamps” doesn’t imply “Eliezer knows better than the experts on typical LW topics about which Eliezer claims to know better than the experts”.
That doesn’t help because there’s no baseline. How many times did he have public positions that didn’t pan out?
But the point is that “Eliezer knew better than the experts with respect to lamps” doesn’t imply “Eliezer knows better than the experts on typical LW topics about which Eliezer claims to know better than the experts”.