Yes, this all seems quite reasonable, and I think it’s a failure if we fail to at least acknowledge that the model is going to break down at some point and give some guesses about when it will break down, which is what I see happening a lot when I read about exponential growth models (the modeler presents a curve, but not a model or even of theory of how growth might end, which to me feels like I’m only getting half a model, and it makes the model not very useful because it has such limited predictive power and it’s not even attempting to quantifying the limitations).
Like I’m okay with saying we don’t know how to quantify something at all, but once we start quantifying, I expect to see the quantifying carried through. Making a bet is a great way to quantify!
Yes, this all seems quite reasonable, and I think it’s a failure if we fail to at least acknowledge that the model is going to break down at some point and give some guesses about when it will break down, which is what I see happening a lot when I read about exponential growth models (the modeler presents a curve, but not a model or even of theory of how growth might end, which to me feels like I’m only getting half a model, and it makes the model not very useful because it has such limited predictive power and it’s not even attempting to quantifying the limitations).
Like I’m okay with saying we don’t know how to quantify something at all, but once we start quantifying, I expect to see the quantifying carried through. Making a bet is a great way to quantify!