reference class of beliefs in coming of a new world, be it good or evil, is huge and with consistent 0% success rate.
Are you saying that the Industrial Revolution did not has a success rate of greater than 0% to come to pass? The beliefs associated with it may not have been accurate when looking at some of the most critical or the most enthusiastic of supporters for the Industrial Revolution, but most of the Industrialists who made their fortunes from the event understood quite well that it was the end of a way of life and the beginning of a new world. It just wasn’t all that either side of the polorized supporters or detractors made it out to be.
For the last two years, I have been gathering data about how the Singularity has gained its own sort of mythology, just as past profound social and technological changes have produced their own mythology.
Part of what is different with the Singularity is that we have long passed the point where much of the mythology has started to become fact. There are now sound hypotheses that can be tested.
This does not mean that the predictions of transcendence of biology that come as a consequence of some technical aspects of the Singularity are false however. It does mean that people are likely to place more hopes in them than should be the case, however.
Things like Cryonics. Most of us who have cryonics arrangements have been told by the companies themselves that they are making no promises and that we should think of this as no different than making any other form of final arrangements. Just that this arrangement carries with it a chance that isn’t very likely to exist with the other arrangements (infinitesimally small with a normal burial given radically high technology - in other words next to none… And, absolutely none with cremation). So, being that we wish to give ourselves the best chances possible, and given that even $250,000 for the most expensive of plans is an astronomically low figure in a life span that is not limited by ordinary aging or other maladies… It is probably worth it.
Well, if the brain is otherwise intact, it can take a while to completely liquefy after being embalmed (unless they remove it completely). So, there is a short period of time where some information could be recovered. Also, depending upon the type of embalming, the brain may last longer than others (Like most things death, it just depends upon what one is willing to pay).
However, most of the methods do begin to converge on zero after a relatively short period when compared to cryonics.
You don’t necessarily need the brain. There’s no Cartesian divide between your brain and the rest of the universe; they interact quite a bit. I would bet that all the information that’s in your brain now can theoretically be inferred from things outside of your brain in 10 years, although I’m less confident that a physically realizable superintelligence would be able to do that sort of inference.
Yes… They interact quite a bit (the brain and the rest of the universe)… Then what am I doing investing in a technology that gives me the best chance of recovering the pattern within that brain?
I get the point, but the interaction between the brain and the rest of the universe is not likely to leave a durable pattern upon the universe of the pattern in the brain. I am open to being wrong about that.
This is a real question concerning this quote:
Are you saying that the Industrial Revolution did not has a success rate of greater than 0% to come to pass? The beliefs associated with it may not have been accurate when looking at some of the most critical or the most enthusiastic of supporters for the Industrial Revolution, but most of the Industrialists who made their fortunes from the event understood quite well that it was the end of a way of life and the beginning of a new world. It just wasn’t all that either side of the polorized supporters or detractors made it out to be.
For the last two years, I have been gathering data about how the Singularity has gained its own sort of mythology, just as past profound social and technological changes have produced their own mythology.
Part of what is different with the Singularity is that we have long passed the point where much of the mythology has started to become fact. There are now sound hypotheses that can be tested.
This does not mean that the predictions of transcendence of biology that come as a consequence of some technical aspects of the Singularity are false however. It does mean that people are likely to place more hopes in them than should be the case, however.
Things like Cryonics. Most of us who have cryonics arrangements have been told by the companies themselves that they are making no promises and that we should think of this as no different than making any other form of final arrangements. Just that this arrangement carries with it a chance that isn’t very likely to exist with the other arrangements (infinitesimally small with a normal burial given radically high technology - in other words next to none… And, absolutely none with cremation). So, being that we wish to give ourselves the best chances possible, and given that even $250,000 for the most expensive of plans is an astronomically low figure in a life span that is not limited by ordinary aging or other maladies… It is probably worth it.
Absolutely none with cremation? 0% I would say otherwise.
Well, if the brain is otherwise intact, it can take a while to completely liquefy after being embalmed (unless they remove it completely). So, there is a short period of time where some information could be recovered. Also, depending upon the type of embalming, the brain may last longer than others (Like most things death, it just depends upon what one is willing to pay).
However, most of the methods do begin to converge on zero after a relatively short period when compared to cryonics.
You don’t necessarily need the brain. There’s no Cartesian divide between your brain and the rest of the universe; they interact quite a bit. I would bet that all the information that’s in your brain now can theoretically be inferred from things outside of your brain in 10 years, although I’m less confident that a physically realizable superintelligence would be able to do that sort of inference.
Yes… They interact quite a bit (the brain and the rest of the universe)… Then what am I doing investing in a technology that gives me the best chance of recovering the pattern within that brain?
I get the point, but the interaction between the brain and the rest of the universe is not likely to leave a durable pattern upon the universe of the pattern in the brain. I am open to being wrong about that.
Because of our uncertainty about how much information is preserved and how easy it is to reconstruct. Cryonics is the most conservative option.