Alter these reference classes even tiny bit, and the result you get is basically just the opposite. For cryonics, just use the reference class of cases where people thought either a) that technology X could prolong the life of the patient, or b) that technology X could preserve wanted items, or c) that technology X could restore wanted media. Comparing it to technologies like this seems much more reasonable than taking the single peculiar property of cryonics(that it could theoretically for the first time grant us immortality) and using only that as a reference class. You could use same argument of using the peculiar property as reference class against any developing technology and consistently reach ~0% chance for it, so it works as perfectly general counter argument too.
Coming of a new world seems more reasonable reference class for singularity, but you seem to be interpreting in a bit strickter way than I would. I’d rephrase that as reference class of enormous changes in society, and there has indeed been many of such. Also, we note that processing and spreading information has been crucial to many of these, so narrowing our reference class to crucial properties of singularity(which basically just means “huge change in society due to artifical being that is able to process information better than we are”), we actually gain opposite result than what you did.
We do have a fairly good track record of making artifical beings that replicate parts of human behavior, too.
Alter these reference classes even tiny bit, and the result you get is basically just the opposite. For cryonics, just use the reference class of cases where people thought either a) that technology X could prolong the life of the patient, or b) that technology X could preserve wanted items, or c) that technology X could restore wanted media. Comparing it to technologies like this seems much more reasonable than taking the single peculiar property of cryonics(that it could theoretically for the first time grant us immortality) and using only that as a reference class. You could use same argument of using the peculiar property as reference class against any developing technology and consistently reach ~0% chance for it, so it works as perfectly general counter argument too.
Coming of a new world seems more reasonable reference class for singularity, but you seem to be interpreting in a bit strickter way than I would. I’d rephrase that as reference class of enormous changes in society, and there has indeed been many of such. Also, we note that processing and spreading information has been crucial to many of these, so narrowing our reference class to crucial properties of singularity(which basically just means “huge change in society due to artifical being that is able to process information better than we are”), we actually gain opposite result than what you did.
We do have a fairly good track record of making artifical beings that replicate parts of human behavior, too.