I don’t know if those are the right reference classes for prediction,
but those two beliefs definitely fall into those two categories. That
should set off some warning signals.
Most people seem to have a strong need to believe in life after death
and godlike beings. Anything less than ironclad disproof leads them to
strong belief. If you challenge their beliefs, they’ll often vigorously
demonstrate that these things are not impossible and declare victory.
They ignore the distinction between “not impossible” and “highly likely”
even when trying to persuade a known skeptic because, for them on those
issues, the distinction does not exist.
Not that I see anyone doing that here.
It’s just a warning sign that the topics invite bias. Proceed with
caution.
I don’t know if those are the right reference classes for prediction, but those two beliefs definitely fall into those two categories. That should set off some warning signals.
Most people seem to have a strong need to believe in life after death and godlike beings. Anything less than ironclad disproof leads them to strong belief. If you challenge their beliefs, they’ll often vigorously demonstrate that these things are not impossible and declare victory. They ignore the distinction between “not impossible” and “highly likely” even when trying to persuade a known skeptic because, for them on those issues, the distinction does not exist.
Not that I see anyone doing that here.
It’s just a warning sign that the topics invite bias. Proceed with caution.