Anyone who predicts a stranglehold on politics lasting longer than a decade is crazy. Not that it doesn’t happen, but you can’t possibly hope to see that far out. In 1997 I thought Labour would win a second term, but I wasn’t confident of a third (which they got) and I would have been mad to predict a fourth, which they’re not going to get. I don’t think there were very many people saying “the Tories will never again form a government” even after the 1997 landslide.
I predict that after the 2010 elections, someone will predict that whichever party came out on top will now have a stranglehold on power. My reference class is the set of post-election predictions after every US election I’ve watched.
Anyone who predicts a stranglehold on politics lasting longer than a decade is crazy. Not that it doesn’t happen, but you can’t possibly hope to see that far out. In 1997 I thought Labour would win a second term, but I wasn’t confident of a third (which they got) and I would have been mad to predict a fourth, which they’re not going to get. I don’t think there were very many people saying “the Tories will never again form a government” even after the 1997 landslide.
I predict that after the 2010 elections, someone will predict that whichever party came out on top will now have a stranglehold on power. My reference class is the set of post-election predictions after every US election I’ve watched.