There is a lot of good stuff to think about in this article. I especially like the poker post on “this is what 5% feels like” as it is in line with a number of things which I have enjoyed doing to calibrate my own intuition. Some of those items posted on prediction book confuse me, however.
Example: “‘I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba’ posted by gwern.” And then you predict 100% against. (Ignoring the conventional wisdom that 1.0 is not a probability) I wonder what you are doing with such an item which seems a waste of keystrokes and brain thought cycles. Can you go into (a little more) what you are doing there?
PB doesn’t allow you to put in decimals, so it’s sort of understood that 100% simply means >99.5% or so. There I simply noticed a stupid prediction and decided to note it down; easy predictions are relaxing, and I had just put in scores of Eva predictions.
There is a lot of good stuff to think about in this article. I especially like the poker post on “this is what 5% feels like” as it is in line with a number of things which I have enjoyed doing to calibrate my own intuition. Some of those items posted on prediction book confuse me, however.
Example: “‘I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba’ posted by gwern.” And then you predict 100% against. (Ignoring the conventional wisdom that 1.0 is not a probability) I wonder what you are doing with such an item which seems a waste of keystrokes and brain thought cycles. Can you go into (a little more) what you are doing there?
PB doesn’t allow you to put in decimals, so it’s sort of understood that 100% simply means >99.5% or so. There I simply noticed a stupid prediction and decided to note it down; easy predictions are relaxing, and I had just put in scores of Eva predictions.