But it starts to look a lot like Newcomb’s problem if the psychologist is predicting you using an algorithm similar to the one you use to make the decision—in that case you should one-box.
Not necessarily, it’s hard to say what you should actually do. Maybe the psychologist is gullible enough and you can succeed in getting both non-empty boxes.
Not necessarily, it’s hard to say what you should actually do. Maybe the psychologist is gullible enough and you can succeed in getting both non-empty boxes.
So you put a probability on that and do an expected utility calculation.
(It’s hard to say how to put a probability on that.)