Except that around 2% of blue egg-shaped objects contain palladium instead. So if you find a blue egg-shaped thing that contains palladium, should you call it a “rube” instead? You’re going to put it in the rube bin—why not call it a “rube”?
But when you switch off the light, nearly all bleggs glow faintly in the dark. And blue egg-shaped objects that contain palladium are just as likely to glow in the dark as any other blue egg-shaped object.
So if you find a blue egg-shaped object that contains palladium, and you ask “Is it a blegg?”, the answer depends on what you have to do with the answer: If you ask “Which bin does the object go in?”, then you choose as if the object is a rube. But if you ask “If I turn off the light, will it glow?”, you predict as if the object is a blegg. In one case, the question “Is it a blegg?” stands in for the disguised query, “Which bin does it go in?”. In the other case, the question “Is it a blegg?” stands in for the disguised query, “Will it glow in the dark?”
This is amazing, but too fast. It’s too important and counter intuitive to do that fast, and we absolutely devastatingly painfully need it in philosophy departments. Please help us. This is an S.O.S. our ship is sinking. Write this again longer, so that I can show it to people and change their minds. People who are not lesswrong litterate. It’s too important to go over that fast, anyway. I also ask that you, or anyone for that matter, find a simple real world example which has roughly analogous parameters to the ones you specified, and use that as the example instead. Somebody do it [please, I’m too busy arguing with philosophy proffesors about it, and there are better writers on this site that could take up the endeavor. It would be useful and well liked anyway chances are, and I’ll give what rewards I can.
This is amazing, but too fast. It’s too important and counter intuitive to do that fast, and we absolutely devastatingly painfully need it in philosophy departments. Please help us. This is an S.O.S. our ship is sinking. Write this again longer, so that I can show it to people and change their minds. People who are not lesswrong litterate. It’s too important to go over that fast, anyway. I also ask that you, or anyone for that matter, find a simple real world example which has roughly analogous parameters to the ones you specified, and use that as the example instead. Somebody do it [please, I’m too busy arguing with philosophy proffesors about it, and there are better writers on this site that could take up the endeavor. It would be useful and well liked anyway chances are, and I’ll give what rewards I can.