I very much disagree with the implicit reference class you use when analyzing self-sovereign AIs, though the political economy frame is slightly more sane, in my reading, than the purely economic one. I imagine you’ve heard all the arguments from smarter people than I, but in case you have not:
I very much disagree with the implicit reference class you use when analyzing self-sovereign AIs, though the political economy frame is slightly more sane, in my reading, than the purely economic one. I imagine you’ve heard all the arguments from smarter people than I, but in case you have not:
Byrnes’ criticism of the econ frame: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJWBofhLQjf3KmRgg/four-ways-learning-econ-makes-people-dumber-re-future-ai
Reasons I expect things to happen faster post ASI than even 2027 projects:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qNyFNJp7CFbkjL6Mh/if-drexler-is-wrong-he-may-as-well-be-right
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lc8v92pGPtjF3gsCv/some-quick-thoughts-on-ai-2027
Latent potential for discontinuous power grabs:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uDAWPNwPJfEY7oroF/self-hosting
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JcavsPku6RR9hcujz/slightly-super-persuasion-will-do