I do think this is an overly optimistic picture. The amount of traction an argument gets seems to be something like a product of how good the argument is, how credible those making the argument are, and how easy it is to process the argument.
Also, regarding this:
But the credibility system is good enough that the top credible people are really pretty smart, so to an extent can be swayed by good arguments presented well.
It’s not just intelligence that determines if people will be swayed; I think other factors (like “rationality”, “open-mindedness”, and other personality factors play a very big role.
I do think this is an overly optimistic picture. The amount of traction an argument gets seems to be something like a product of how good the argument is, how credible those making the argument are, and how easy it is to process the argument.
Also, regarding this:
It’s not just intelligence that determines if people will be swayed; I think other factors (like “rationality”, “open-mindedness”, and other personality factors play a very big role.