Worse in what manner? In individual combat? A pirate crew vs. an association of ninjas?
From the comments I’ve read so far, I think the hypothetical situations you’ve used to determine that ninjas would win are grossly weighted in favor of ninjas. For example, you’ve already said it can’t be any sea-based conflict (unless the ninjas are specially-trained sailor-ninjas on a navy ship, instead of being passenger ninjas booking passage on a merchant ship, as most would do if required to travel by sea if traveling by sea is incidental to their main function—being, in this case, assassination), “because why would ninjas be at sea?” Yet it can be “drunk pirates in whorehouses, unaware they are being targeted, vs ninjas that know exactly where they are and can get to them in time.”
Your ninjas also have unrealistic government support (they were usually employed by noble families or daimyos, not imperial forces, and considered quite expendable—see hairyfigment’s comment below), “better” ships than the pirates (AFAIK almost impossible, considering the naval technology the sides would be using), the ability to obtain whatever training is required (no time limit? the pirates cannot buy training too?), are aware of the conflict while the pirates aren’t (or would they be getting drunk on land? well—maybe), etc.
A distinction should be made between a strict determination of fighting prowess—pirates vs ninjas in equal numbers in open combat—and the sort of situation you seem to be thinking of, wherein we try to be as realistic as possible, and all factors (such as whether or not ninjas would be at sea, and a sailor’s propensity to get drunk) are considered. The latter is a lot more difficult to figure out, since so much would depend on circumstance (as in your drunk pirate example). This should also include allowance for the favored methods of both sides—pirates fighting at sea, ninjas not charging forward in open combat but assassinating and infiltrating—though you only seem to make the latter allowance.
For the former situation, I believe pirates could possibly win. They have better guns, and contrary to popular assumption, pirates could be very skilled in swordsmanship and general brawling. A lot of them were ex-navy, and in any case you wouldn’t survive long as a pirate without obtaining some competence. Ninjas might be trained in espionage and assassination, but that doesn’t include open combat, and they’d likely have less experience with it than pirates. They were trained in swordmanship as well, though, and quite possibly more thoroughly (but in some cases inadequately!), and bows could be as good or better than guns at many points in our possible time-range.
For the latter, here are a few factors to consider. One, ninjas didn’t often attack in groups; sometimes they operated in small teams, but not any as large as a pirate crew. They were not used to wipe out large groups of people, but individual targets. Already we must depart from realism if we want to grant anything like equal numbers; it wouldn’t be interesting to think about “one ninja vs a crew of pirates”, but it weights the situation in favor of the ninjas if we go beyond “a small group of ninjas vs a crew of pirates”. Two, would the pirates be aware they’re being targeted by assassins? That would seem to depend on why exactly they’re being targeted—a bounty they might be aware of; a covert vendetta for personal reasons, probably not. Trying to think of a realistic reason for the conflict might be a bit difficult. Three, I don’t think ninjas could ever requisition ships, but if they could, they would still be at a disadvantage in naval combat considering the superiority of European vessels up until very recently. (It’s not like pirates would be exactly inexperienced at naval combat, note.) Four, the pirates might be based at an unknown location, or nowhere at all, leaving the ninjas to attempt to catch them either in the act of raiding a coastal village, or making landfall to obtain supplies. Five, the ninjas might also be based in a location unknown to the pirates, or operating clandestinely; so while I initially considered that the pirates might raid their Ninja HQ, that might not be possible.
So… we might have a crew of pirates making landfall in various locations and attempting to locate and kill a small (<12?) team of ninjas, and said small team of ninjas attempting to catch them in the act and kill them right back. I suppose there is also the possibility of ninjas acquiring a vessel to pursue the pirates, although I can’t see how that would end any way but badly for them. They could hardly crew the entire vessel themselves, even if they had sufficient numbers, as they’re not sailors. You could give them some year(s) to obtain sailing skill, but then, you could also give the pirates some year(s) to obtain espionage skill. You could give them an unhistorical amount of support and grant them a naval vessel with crew, but now it’s not strictly pirates vs. ninjas.
A variety of situations could develop from this: ninjas creep aboard anchored pirate vessel and attempt to assassinate the crew, pirates raid village where ninjas are staying, pirates and ninjas engage in naval combat, land-based combat… I think, as Nornagest says above, it is clear that you have to stretch to come up with a situation in which they’re actually engaging in conflict, and if you do, who wins depends entirely on the circumstance you have concocted.
To say that anyone who doesn’t think real pirates aren’t “ridiculously ‘worse’ than ninjas is not thinking well at all” seems quite absurd to me, and even smacks of “ninja fanboyism”. It’s by no means so clear-cut that any pirate-supporter is obviously mentally deficient. And I like ninjas much more, personally. Pirates were awful people who deserve to be vilified, not romanticized. I don’t even know why I’ve put this much effort in supporting them, come to think of it, except my general urge to correct what I see as error. I’ve been exposed to too much weeabo-ism, perhaps.
(unless the ninjas are sailor-ninjas on a navy ship—for some reason, despite the fact that any Japanese power with a navy never employed ninjas as far as has been recorded)
Was not my counterfactual scenario. It was someone else describing a counterfactual where ninjas are travelling by sea to a ninja-convention. My only contribution there was to (implicitly) assert that the counterfactualising operation that preserves the most probability mass to produce that scenario would not result in ninjas travelling on unarmed ships.
To say that anyone who doesn’t think real pirates aren’t “ridiculously worse [in an unspecified manner] than ninjas is not thinking well at all” seems quite absurd to me, and smacks of “ninja fanboyism”.
I had never really considered it before daenerys proposed the idea of actually considering the question. I don’t particularly accept the charge “in an unspecified manner” but I certainly haven’t gone into detail. It roughly pertains to how one reasons about counter-factual and hypothetical situations. One can either take the counterfactual as an excuse to make up whatever story suits your position or you can apply the counterfactualizing operation in a manner that preserves the most probability mass.
I consider this question a valid diagnostic tool in that regard. In fact I went ahead and used it as such. I made this very meta-claim on facebook and when anyone disagreed I unfriended them. I call it either “evaporative cooling of styles of thinking in my chosen peers” or “being grumpy and getting rid of people who are likely to say annoying and wrong things in the future”.
Was not my counterfactual scenario. It was someone else describing a counterfactual where ninjas are travelling by sea to a ninja-convention. My only contribution there was to (implicitly) assert that the counterfactualising operation that preserves the most probability mass to produce that scenario would not result in ninjas travelling on unarmed ships.
I edited that; I think the daimyos did have their own navies. I’m not actually certain about that, though, and I don’t feel like looking it up. Maybe someone who knows more Japanese history can contribute. In either case, I don’t think it’s possible to say which is more probable, since whether they book passage on a merchant ship, or are sent with a naval ship by a master who controls both, depends entirely on the circumstance we concoct. Historically, they could have done both, if daimyos did have navies.
And in my experience the way people go about concocting such circumstances (in general, over all counterfactuals) matters a lot to me both in terms of how much respect I can maintain for them as a thinker and how much I can tolerate their presence. For the purpose of answering a specific question not all concocted circumstances are equal!
Worse in what manner? In individual combat? A pirate crew vs. an association of ninjas?
From the comments I’ve read so far, I think the hypothetical situations you’ve used to determine that ninjas would win are grossly weighted in favor of ninjas. For example, you’ve already said it can’t be any sea-based conflict (unless the ninjas are specially-trained sailor-ninjas on a navy ship, instead of being passenger ninjas booking passage on a merchant ship, as most would do if required to travel by sea if traveling by sea is incidental to their main function—being, in this case, assassination), “because why would ninjas be at sea?” Yet it can be “drunk pirates in whorehouses, unaware they are being targeted, vs ninjas that know exactly where they are and can get to them in time.”
Your ninjas also have unrealistic government support (they were usually employed by noble families or daimyos, not imperial forces, and considered quite expendable—see hairyfigment’s comment below), “better” ships than the pirates (AFAIK almost impossible, considering the naval technology the sides would be using), the ability to obtain whatever training is required (no time limit? the pirates cannot buy training too?), are aware of the conflict while the pirates aren’t (or would they be getting drunk on land? well—maybe), etc.
A distinction should be made between a strict determination of fighting prowess—pirates vs ninjas in equal numbers in open combat—and the sort of situation you seem to be thinking of, wherein we try to be as realistic as possible, and all factors (such as whether or not ninjas would be at sea, and a sailor’s propensity to get drunk) are considered. The latter is a lot more difficult to figure out, since so much would depend on circumstance (as in your drunk pirate example). This should also include allowance for the favored methods of both sides—pirates fighting at sea, ninjas not charging forward in open combat but assassinating and infiltrating—though you only seem to make the latter allowance.
For the former situation, I believe pirates could possibly win. They have better guns, and contrary to popular assumption, pirates could be very skilled in swordsmanship and general brawling. A lot of them were ex-navy, and in any case you wouldn’t survive long as a pirate without obtaining some competence. Ninjas might be trained in espionage and assassination, but that doesn’t include open combat, and they’d likely have less experience with it than pirates. They were trained in swordmanship as well, though, and quite possibly more thoroughly (but in some cases inadequately!), and bows could be as good or better than guns at many points in our possible time-range.
For the latter, here are a few factors to consider. One, ninjas didn’t often attack in groups; sometimes they operated in small teams, but not any as large as a pirate crew. They were not used to wipe out large groups of people, but individual targets. Already we must depart from realism if we want to grant anything like equal numbers; it wouldn’t be interesting to think about “one ninja vs a crew of pirates”, but it weights the situation in favor of the ninjas if we go beyond “a small group of ninjas vs a crew of pirates”. Two, would the pirates be aware they’re being targeted by assassins? That would seem to depend on why exactly they’re being targeted—a bounty they might be aware of; a covert vendetta for personal reasons, probably not. Trying to think of a realistic reason for the conflict might be a bit difficult. Three, I don’t think ninjas could ever requisition ships, but if they could, they would still be at a disadvantage in naval combat considering the superiority of European vessels up until very recently. (It’s not like pirates would be exactly inexperienced at naval combat, note.) Four, the pirates might be based at an unknown location, or nowhere at all, leaving the ninjas to attempt to catch them either in the act of raiding a coastal village, or making landfall to obtain supplies. Five, the ninjas might also be based in a location unknown to the pirates, or operating clandestinely; so while I initially considered that the pirates might raid their Ninja HQ, that might not be possible.
So… we might have a crew of pirates making landfall in various locations and attempting to locate and kill a small (<12?) team of ninjas, and said small team of ninjas attempting to catch them in the act and kill them right back. I suppose there is also the possibility of ninjas acquiring a vessel to pursue the pirates, although I can’t see how that would end any way but badly for them. They could hardly crew the entire vessel themselves, even if they had sufficient numbers, as they’re not sailors. You could give them some year(s) to obtain sailing skill, but then, you could also give the pirates some year(s) to obtain espionage skill. You could give them an unhistorical amount of support and grant them a naval vessel with crew, but now it’s not strictly pirates vs. ninjas.
A variety of situations could develop from this: ninjas creep aboard anchored pirate vessel and attempt to assassinate the crew, pirates raid village where ninjas are staying, pirates and ninjas engage in naval combat, land-based combat… I think, as Nornagest says above, it is clear that you have to stretch to come up with a situation in which they’re actually engaging in conflict, and if you do, who wins depends entirely on the circumstance you have concocted.
To say that anyone who doesn’t think real pirates aren’t “ridiculously ‘worse’ than ninjas is not thinking well at all” seems quite absurd to me, and even smacks of “ninja fanboyism”. It’s by no means so clear-cut that any pirate-supporter is obviously mentally deficient. And I like ninjas much more, personally. Pirates were awful people who deserve to be vilified, not romanticized. I don’t even know why I’ve put this much effort in supporting them, come to think of it, except my general urge to correct what I see as error. I’ve been exposed to too much weeabo-ism, perhaps.
Was not my counterfactual scenario. It was someone else describing a counterfactual where ninjas are travelling by sea to a ninja-convention. My only contribution there was to (implicitly) assert that the counterfactualising operation that preserves the most probability mass to produce that scenario would not result in ninjas travelling on unarmed ships.
I had never really considered it before daenerys proposed the idea of actually considering the question. I don’t particularly accept the charge “in an unspecified manner” but I certainly haven’t gone into detail. It roughly pertains to how one reasons about counter-factual and hypothetical situations. One can either take the counterfactual as an excuse to make up whatever story suits your position or you can apply the counterfactualizing operation in a manner that preserves the most probability mass.
I consider this question a valid diagnostic tool in that regard. In fact I went ahead and used it as such. I made this very meta-claim on facebook and when anyone disagreed I unfriended them. I call it either “evaporative cooling of styles of thinking in my chosen peers” or “being grumpy and getting rid of people who are likely to say annoying and wrong things in the future”.
I edited that; I think the daimyos did have their own navies. I’m not actually certain about that, though, and I don’t feel like looking it up. Maybe someone who knows more Japanese history can contribute. In either case, I don’t think it’s possible to say which is more probable, since whether they book passage on a merchant ship, or are sent with a naval ship by a master who controls both, depends entirely on the circumstance we concoct. Historically, they could have done both, if daimyos did have navies.
And in my experience the way people go about concocting such circumstances (in general, over all counterfactuals) matters a lot to me both in terms of how much respect I can maintain for them as a thinker and how much I can tolerate their presence. For the purpose of answering a specific question not all concocted circumstances are equal!
Damned ninjas! Get off my lawn!
Better your lawn than inside your bedroom! ;)
That’s an entirely different genre.
That one took me a few seconds to decipher! :)