Indeed I think this is the central problem with the way most people use their powers of reasoning. (It even has a name: “the argumentative theory of reason”.) They start with a conclusion, and work backwards to find rational (or at least rational-sounding) ways of supporting that conclusion.
We all do this automatically; it may be the very thing our brains evolved to do. We have to work very hard to get ourselves to do the opposite, start with evidence and use reasoning based on the evidence to decide on our conclusion. I’d say most scientists manage to do this right maybe half the time, and most laypeople almost never manage it.
Indeed I think this is the central problem with the way most people use their powers of reasoning. (It even has a name: “the argumentative theory of reason”.) They start with a conclusion, and work backwards to find rational (or at least rational-sounding) ways of supporting that conclusion.
We all do this automatically; it may be the very thing our brains evolved to do. We have to work very hard to get ourselves to do the opposite, start with evidence and use reasoning based on the evidence to decide on our conclusion. I’d say most scientists manage to do this right maybe half the time, and most laypeople almost never manage it.