This philosophy thought experiment is a Problem of Excess Metal. This is where philosophers spice up thought experiments with totally unnecessary extremes, in this case an elite sniper, terrorists, children, and an evil supervisor. This is common, see also the Shooting Room Paradox (aka Snake Eyes Paradox), Smoking Lesion, Trolley Problems, etc, etc. My hypothesis is that this is a status play whereby high decouplers can demonstrate their decoupling skill. It’s net negative for humanity. Problems of Excess Metal also routinely contradict basic facts about reality. In this case, children do not have the same surface area as terrorists.
Here is an equivalent question that does not suffer from Excess Metal.
A normal archer is shooting towards two normal wooden archery targets on an archery range with a normal bow.
The targets are of equal size, distance, and height. One is to the left of the other.
There is normal wind, gravity, humidity, etc. It’s a typical day on Earth.
The targets are some distance away, four times further away than she has fired before.
Q: If the archer shoots at the left target as if there are no external factors, is she more likely to hit the left target than the right target?
A: The archer has a 0% chance of hitting either target. Gravity is an external factor. If she ignores gravity when shooting a bow and arrow over a sufficient distance, she will always miss both targets, and she knows this. Since 0% = 0%, she is not more likely to hit one target than the other.
Q: What if the archer ignores all external factors except gravity? She goes back to her physics textbook and does the math based on an idealized projectile in a vacuum.
A: I think she predictably misses both targets because of air resistance, but I’d need to do some math to confirm that.
This philosophy thought experiment is a Problem of Excess Metal. This is where philosophers spice up thought experiments with totally unnecessary extremes, in this case an elite sniper, terrorists, children, and an evil supervisor. This is common, see also the Shooting Room Paradox (aka Snake Eyes Paradox), Smoking Lesion, Trolley Problems, etc, etc. My hypothesis is that this is a status play whereby high decouplers can demonstrate their decoupling skill. It’s net negative for humanity. Problems of Excess Metal also routinely contradict basic facts about reality. In this case, children do not have the same surface area as terrorists.
Here is an equivalent question that does not suffer from Excess Metal.
A normal archer is shooting towards two normal wooden archery targets on an archery range with a normal bow.
The targets are of equal size, distance, and height. One is to the left of the other.
There is normal wind, gravity, humidity, etc. It’s a typical day on Earth.
The targets are some distance away, four times further away than she has fired before.
Q: If the archer shoots at the left target as if there are no external factors, is she more likely to hit the left target than the right target?
A: The archer has a 0% chance of hitting either target. Gravity is an external factor. If she ignores gravity when shooting a bow and arrow over a sufficient distance, she will always miss both targets, and she knows this. Since 0% = 0%, she is not more likely to hit one target than the other.
Q: But zero isn’t a probability!
A: Then P(Left|I) = P(Right|I) = 0%, see Acknowledging Background Information with P(Q|I).
Q: What if the archer ignores all external factors except gravity? She goes back to her physics textbook and does the math based on an idealized projectile in a vacuum.
A: I think she predictably misses both targets because of air resistance, but I’d need to do some math to confirm that.