The government isn’t going to have a choice about raising rates. They will literally not be able to sell treasuries if they don’t raise the rates.
And if somehow the investors and the government cooperate and decide to continue lending the government money at 4%, it won’t matter in a couple of years because that pool of money will be much smaller by comparison.
Yes, I’m with you in theory, but I don’t think that pool shrinks in a couple of years. The stock market has given better returns than treasuries for hundreds of years, yet there’s a large pool of capital that has not moved there, or cannot move there. If humanity survives this at all, I think that world doesn’t have treasuries falling in face value by 70% and all money moving into AI datacenters and the guys with the guns unable to raise money.
Unless the guys with the guns becomes the AI labs in which case OpenAI doesn’t give you 20%. They give you 5% and keep the rest for themselves.
I don’t think the government is going to borrow much money. I think they’re probably going to just print it. If we can actually control superintelligence and we don’t just die (a big if), the tech is going to be massively deflationary. At the same time government revenues from income tax are dropping, income from corporate tax is going to go up and deflation is going to make money printing extremelly compelling.
The government isn’t going to have a choice about raising rates. They will literally not be able to sell treasuries if they don’t raise the rates.
And if somehow the investors and the government cooperate and decide to continue lending the government money at 4%, it won’t matter in a couple of years because that pool of money will be much smaller by comparison.
Yes, I’m with you in theory, but I don’t think that pool shrinks in a couple of years. The stock market has given better returns than treasuries for hundreds of years, yet there’s a large pool of capital that has not moved there, or cannot move there. If humanity survives this at all, I think that world doesn’t have treasuries falling in face value by 70% and all money moving into AI datacenters and the guys with the guns unable to raise money.
Unless the guys with the guns becomes the AI labs in which case OpenAI doesn’t give you 20%. They give you 5% and keep the rest for themselves.
I don’t think the government is going to borrow much money. I think they’re probably going to just print it. If we can actually control superintelligence and we don’t just die (a big if), the tech is going to be massively deflationary. At the same time government revenues from income tax are dropping, income from corporate tax is going to go up and deflation is going to make money printing extremelly compelling.