Does the Fermi Paradox put an upper limit on the bounds of ASI capabilities?
Given that the Universe has had ~14 billion years to develop, it seems overwhelmingly likely that someone else out there has already maxxed out the tech tree and pushed AI as far as it can go. But we don’t see any Von Neumann probes eating the Milky Way, nor do we see any evidence of interstellar travel within the Virgo Supercluster (~147 million light years)...let alone the rest of the observable universe!
From this observation, we can conclude one of two things. Either:
FTL interstellar travel is impossible, or
We would be the first civilization to ever do it.
I concede that 2. is possible but I (perhaps naively) think 1. is far more likely. I would even go so far as to say that normal / sub-FTL interstellar travel is probably impossible on this view.
Of course, there are always the other standard possibilities e.g.
Some other civilization has achieved ASI and/or FTL, and is leaving us alone for some reason.
Maybe they’re under a Star Trek-like Prime Directive, or maybe their reasons are beyond our comprehension.
Civilizations are inherently fragile/vulnerable and always die out before reaching this level of capability.
Note that this would imply that they died for non-ASI reasons (or at least that their ASI is not infinitely power-seeking).
This possibility is also not mutually exclusive with 2.
A sub-FTL ASI/alien civilization is on its way right now and we simply haven’t been able to observe them yet.
Either way, I think we shouldn’t take the fact that we haven’t been consumed or conquered by some alien civilization or ASI (yet) for granted.
Does the Fermi Paradox put an upper limit on the bounds of ASI capabilities?
Given that the Universe has had ~14 billion years to develop, it seems overwhelmingly likely that someone else out there has already maxxed out the tech tree and pushed AI as far as it can go. But we don’t see any Von Neumann probes eating the Milky Way, nor do we see any evidence of interstellar travel within the Virgo Supercluster (~147 million light years)...let alone the rest of the observable universe!
From this observation, we can conclude one of two things. Either:
FTL interstellar travel is impossible, or
We would be the first civilization to ever do it.
I concede that 2. is possible but I (perhaps naively) think 1. is far more likely. I would even go so far as to say that normal / sub-FTL interstellar travel is probably impossible on this view.
Of course, there are always the other standard possibilities e.g.
Some other civilization has achieved ASI and/or FTL, and is leaving us alone for some reason.
Maybe they’re under a Star Trek-like Prime Directive, or maybe their reasons are beyond our comprehension.
Civilizations are inherently fragile/vulnerable and always die out before reaching this level of capability.
Note that this would imply that they died for non-ASI reasons (or at least that their ASI is not infinitely power-seeking).
This possibility is also not mutually exclusive with 2.
A sub-FTL ASI/alien civilization is on its way right now and we simply haven’t been able to observe them yet.
Either way, I think we shouldn’t take the fact that we haven’t been consumed or conquered by some alien civilization or ASI (yet) for granted.