A new edition of the cryonics question became more misleading than before. The new version is as follows:
What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?
It factored out the probability of global catastrophe, but not other things, and as a result it now superficially looks even more like a question about technical feasibility, but it’s still dominated by events unrelated to technical feasibility (motivation vs. feasibility, value drift, failure of storage facility).
(Also, the previous version of the question was more useful, as it produced the probability that goes into expected value estimate of cryonics arrangements. The current conditional question doesn’t elicit this probability, and the subsequent question about probability of global catastrophe doesn’t allow to straightforwardly restore the total probability estimate for cryonics.)
A new edition of the cryonics question became more misleading than before. The new version is as follows:
It factored out the probability of global catastrophe, but not other things, and as a result it now superficially looks even more like a question about technical feasibility, but it’s still dominated by events unrelated to technical feasibility (motivation vs. feasibility, value drift, failure of storage facility).
(Also, the previous version of the question was more useful, as it produced the probability that goes into expected value estimate of cryonics arrangements. The current conditional question doesn’t elicit this probability, and the subsequent question about probability of global catastrophe doesn’t allow to straightforwardly restore the total probability estimate for cryonics.)