My main read is that the situation is hard to read in this regard. On one hand, the baseline public signaling seems to have intensified and decisionmaking seems to have degraded further. On the other hand (based largely on intuitions with too many inputs to list), my sense is that most likely explanations involve evaporative cooling of group beliefs and public-impression based preference cascades. I’d expect a tipping point of some kind but its exact nature and timing are harder to predict.
My main read is that the situation is hard to read in this regard. On one hand, the baseline public signaling seems to have intensified and decisionmaking seems to have degraded further. On the other hand (based largely on intuitions with too many inputs to list), my sense is that most likely explanations involve evaporative cooling of group beliefs and public-impression based preference cascades. I’d expect a tipping point of some kind but its exact nature and timing are harder to predict.