Cool. Looks like there’s no evidence yet one way or another.
Isn’t there a place lesswrongers post predictions like this to check their calibration? I’d be willing to go on record with, say, 75% confidence that the most recent common ancestor of humans and chimps had more advanced tool use than modern chimps.
Yes, PredictionBook.com, but your prediction would be difficult since it has no clear due date, and no clear judging—it’d be hard to date most recent common ancestor, date tools, or prove that the former was using the latter.
Cool. Looks like there’s no evidence yet one way or another.
Isn’t there a place lesswrongers post predictions like this to check their calibration? I’d be willing to go on record with, say, 75% confidence that the most recent common ancestor of humans and chimps had more advanced tool use than modern chimps.
Yes, PredictionBook.com, but your prediction would be difficult since it has no clear due date, and no clear judging—it’d be hard to date most recent common ancestor, date tools, or prove that the former was using the latter.