I think these questions are all still ambiguous, just a little bit less ambiguous.
I gave a probability for “most” humans killed, and I intended P(>50% of humans killed). This is fairly close to my estimate for E[fraction of humans killed].
I think if humans die it is very likely that many non-human animals die as well. I don’t have a strong view about the insects and really haven’t thought about it.
In the final bullet I implicitly assumed that the probability of most humans dying for non-takeover reasons shortly after building AI was very similar to the probability of human extinction; I was being imprecise, I think that’s kind of close to true but am not sure exactly what my view is.
I think these questions are all still ambiguous, just a little bit less ambiguous.
I gave a probability for “most” humans killed, and I intended P(>50% of humans killed). This is fairly close to my estimate for E[fraction of humans killed].
I think if humans die it is very likely that many non-human animals die as well. I don’t have a strong view about the insects and really haven’t thought about it.
In the final bullet I implicitly assumed that the probability of most humans dying for non-takeover reasons shortly after building AI was very similar to the probability of human extinction; I was being imprecise, I think that’s kind of close to true but am not sure exactly what my view is.